Lupus Foundaton of America, Iowa Chapter Donations

Lupus Foundaton of America, Iowa Chapter Donations
DONATE NOW!

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Weekly Wrap-up 06/22/14

Little late on this, but had family visiting.  A good solid week sliding back into training.  These first weeks getting back into it are usually really good, since your well rested coming off a taper and hopefully had a good mental reset.   I'm not sure my mental reset was as long as I needed, but I'll have a couple more chances with 4 more races coming up before IMWI in 11 weeks.  That means 4 chances to rest for a few day before and after.  I have to remember that out of that, 3 weekends are recovery weeks, 4 weekends are race weeks, 2 taper weeks, so that leaves just 3-4 weeks/weekends for some quality efforts long rides and runs when you long at the overall plan.   Though keeping in mind there's another 70.3 in there which counts as a quality long run and ride...and test of nutrition and energy management & pacing.  Hard to beat a good race.   Olympic distance is "easy" enough that I can still do a fairly long zone 2 ride the next day, so those weeks are still available.

I need to remember that my primary focus is "Do no harm"!   Meaning I already have to overall speed to KQ and reach my goals.  So while more fitness is still better, and some specificity would be good (A few more long rides and runs to build confidence and get used to that duration), ultimately I need to be physically and mentally ready come Sept 7th.

My lunch swim today was at a neighbors house.  He was a former all-american collegiate swimmer, so there's a 25y lap pool in his backyard.  Water was 80F, but pretty wavy.  I thought it might be good to get used to the chop.  Not so much.  Maybe once a week or something as a OWS simulation.  But it hurts focusing on my technique and it's not as much fun.   I'll probably take the tiem to put the lines in.

On a related note, I think I'm going to back off to only 3-4 swims a week as "maintenance" and instead focus more on cycling and take a little break form swimming so I don;t get burnt out.  Then do a final push in August before taper.  I'm getting confident that if I sight well and get some feet a 59:xx swim is very doable where I'm at now.  So my time is better spent biking more.  I think that's where I'm a little short of my potential.

By the numbers:

Swim: 2h51m, 12,150y
Bike: 10h19m, 226.6mi
Run: 5h47m, 46.4mi
TOTAL: 20h37m

Link to my run Sunday: http://www.trainingpeaks.com/av/4W7XBW5ZEXLMOXLN7LOZQBQSKE

My swims have mostly continued to suck in the warm water and humid indoor conditions.  I did have a very, very good swim on Saturday, so that was a big confidence boost.  maybe my best swim since March.  My dad was watching from the observation area (Bri was doing swim lessons) and he commented that my stroke looked better than it did in high school.  I wish I was swimming that fast, but on about 1/3 the total yards, I'll take it.

That's my highest weekly biek mileage since Mid-March and my highest run mileage since mid-Feb when I injured my achillies.

My legs felt surprisingly OK on Monday after after the mile run mileage that week and Sundays 14mi run.   It did catch up with my this morning as my bike effort fell flat after about 40 minutes.  I salvaged a tempo ride out of it and a few more zone 4 efforts up some climbs and at least hit 100 TSS for the ride... sort of my "gold standard" for a weekday ride of 80-100 minutes.

This weekend is the Y-athlon.  I suspect registration is pretty small...really small.  I bet only 20 show up.  Its' not advertised and the Chicago ITU is that weekend too so few Burlington or Quincy guys will show.  Oh well.  Probably the last year for the event and Lake Geode.   Water quality at Geode is sketchy right now with all the rain feeding the algea.   I won't be surprised if the swim becomes a 5k run.  Which I'd be OK with.... sadly.  Actually, to my advantage I suppose.  taht would be a hard run.  Most of the hills are in the first 1/2 before the dam.

I'll mostly train through the triathlon, but rest enough to have descent legs for a good solid bike & run effort and not risk injury.  Should be fun to see how much I've improved from last year.

Equipment:
Could things I've settled on... I think (things can always change):
1) Going to get a compact crank 50/34 for IMWI and use it at Steelhead & Hyvee as well to test it out and see how much I lose on downhills.  Those 2 races would be come 100% big ring with a compact.
2) While I may try a rear bottle angle far backwards under my seat... I'm likely to play it safe and just use a downtube bottle for my reserve bottle.  2 watts or so of drag might be worth the ease of access and pieec of mind in a race where refueling is critical.  For Steelhead, I'll just use my aerobottle like Kansas and might use a 24oz for my BTA if temperatures are mild, and avoid any hand-offs.
3) I really want that full wetsuit form Daniel.  I have to figure out how to get a hold of it before Steelhead so I can try it out at least once.
4) Rear wheel.  I'm not bothering with a disc cover.   Too much cost to benefit ratio and potential issues.  I'll just hope for light winds or head/tail wind on the stick.  Having preridden the course, my day will be determined by how well I pace the bike & run and how my nutrition works out for me... just that simple.

As another sidenote.   I rode my really slow wheels I used on the I pre-ride.  I'm about 1.1 mph slower than my "faster" training wheelset.  And my race set-up is about another 1.5mph faster.  So where does that leave me?  Maybe add 2.5mph for my IMWI pre-ride pace.  18.8mph @ 194W.  That's 21.3mph.  Figure another 0.3 if I add 15 watts.  That's a 5:10.  I'm thinking that's a realistic time... though I won't dismiss a 5:05.  Just hard to say.  That 2nd lap will be critical how smooth I pace it, getting some free drafting here and there off lap traffic, no stop signs... etc.



Sunday, June 15, 2014

IM Wisconsin Course Pre-ride

SO I regretfully didn't have the funding to hire Daniel Bretscher as a coach This winter(I think it would have been a good match after having an opportunity yesterday to talk his ear off).  But he did offer to ride the course some time during the season if our schedules lined up and we were both healthy.  Well, they did...and we were healthy, so off to Madison on Sat.   Actually, we elected to save 40 minutes of driving and start in Mt. Horeb.
Mt Horeb... site of the 2000 Midwest Region Collegiate MTB Cycling Championships.   I had a great race, remember the party for awards, remember hanging out drinking jack & coke.... and nothing else until I woke up on the floor of our hotel room with the worst hangover I've ever had to date.
Yesterday was a bit more merciful.  Although the course if honest, very honest, very hilly,  little rough in parts, but nothing a good plan, good discipline and knowing your abilities can't manage.
I wont go aver ever segment of the ride.  But I've decided I have a couple favourite sections.
1) The climb into Mt. Horeb.  The pavement gets smooth, Its pretty, shaded forested section, and it's a long moderate grade until the top.
2) The technical descent just outside of Mt. Horeb. Lots of fun.  A couple turns you can really hang out that sets you up for a long fast section through the woods.
3) The 3 sisters.  Seriously, these are good honest climbs.  Shorter than I expected, maybe because they are so steep.  Some really cool descents after each one.  One I nearly overcooked on lap 2.
The rest of it is a mix of of rough pavement and rollers for the most part.  Nothing that fun or exciting.
The real trick on this course is how mentally engaging it is.  You spend very little time just rolling in a constant hear.  You are constantly changing gears, deciding what power level is best. All the while making sure you drink and eat to plan.
What I learned:
1) 53/39 and a 11-28 cassette will be perfect here.  You need a wide range here, especially that 11T.
2) My nutrition plan os OK in cooler temps, but above 80F it was some issues.  I ate about 38- calories per hour, but drank almost 140oz in 5-1/2 hours.  I think 1) I was overdressed a little.   But I need ot be prepared to drink more fluids if needed.  It worked out OK and I pushed through some rough patches where I wasn't feeling good.
3) I can ride at least 200W for 5-1/2 hours and not be shelled if I eat enough.   So it seems reasonable I can ride 210 watts for 5 hours and not be shelled and run very well.   IF I can hit 5:05-5:10 on a conservative 210 watts, I think I'll be in very good shape for a run and a KQ.  I think my best plan is just to focus on my own pace and not worry about where everyone else is at.
4) Even if my legs and energy doesn't feel great for a while, it often comes back around.   The last 3 miles I was able to roll it up and my legs felt pretty good doing it.
5) I'm a speed demon on the corners.  I'll have to watch myself with lap traffic, but I could see gaining almost 1 minute per lap on technical sections.
I GOT POOPED ON!   Yes for the first time that I can recall... a bird pooped and it landed on my arm.  Yes, very gross.  But Daniel said it was good luck, so I'll go with that.   Without any reserve water, I stopped and used weeds and grass on the roadside to wash it off.
Overall great experience to see the course first hand and know what's coming up at each segment.  Huge thanks to Daniel for the professional tour guide.  I gained lots of great tips hints, etc from our conversations.  IT's funny too, here i was thinking I was pretty aero... but wow, he is super aero. I had a slower wheel set-up, but that probably was only a 10 watts difference, yet I rode about 20 watts more average yesterday.
I think after all the great info I gained, I owe him and his wife dinner at Steelhead if they are available.  It will make a real difference in my race since its my first IM.

Quick update.... I looked at my ride file and now im considering at minimum a 52T chainring (would be good to have a new ring then)or a 50/34 crank.  52/36 would be perfect....but are only available in 11 speed or duraace.


EDIT... link to ride file below:


Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Re-evaluating Goals for the Season

Normally, this type of post is usually negative after a bad race, injury, time off.  But for a change, its' positive.  Reflecting on what I accomplished on Sunday, I'm realizing that I may have underestimated myself.  Fellow triathlete Josh Madsen has been telling me this all Spring...especially on the bike.  I've always know that I can expect a solid bump from where I'm at in training to what I do in a race.  But the bump was bigger than expected.  Sometimes you have to "go for it" a little to test yourself, and I think that's what I did.  Especially on the run.  I'm not saying throw all caution to the wind, but go just a little beyond your comfort level and well beyond the pace you've tried before.  When I hit the 10k mark Sunday on the run, I was in uncharted territory.  I had gone faster than my 10k split form Hyvee by 1 minute and was only about 30 seconds slower than my Lake Geode split from last July.  I was cruising, but I kept seeing my pursuer pushing it as well.  I dug in the the last 5 miles and dug deeper the last 5k.  I don't think I went that deep into the pain cave, but I was right at the entrance, taking a long look inside.

So where does that leave me for the rest of the season?

It means that it's time to update my goals.

1) IM Wisconsin - I'm not just trying to KQ at IMWI anymore.  I'm ready to send a message.  I'm now looking at winning the age group and going <9:30.  Hell... sub 9:25!  Maybe even trying for a sub 3 marathon.  The last part is highly ambitious.  If I'd run a 1:20 or 1:19 Sunday, maybe not so much.  But I also felt like I wasn't all that far from those times either.  I wasn't breathing hard until the last 5k.   My legs felt fresh up to mile 7.  I was fully in control.   That could put me right at the #3 amateur spot.   Why is that important?   Because it's one of the options to qualify for your elite status with USAT.   Looking at last year's results.   The 3rd place amateur male went 1:04/5:05/3:05.   Right exactly where I think I can be if I nail my execution, stay consistent in my training and pace the bike and run well.  I might even be able to swim a little better than that, but I don't want to set myself up to fail.  This isn't an ideal time to go after a swim focus now.  I need run mileage, bike mileage and I'll take whatever swim improvements I can get.  So lets go with 1:02/5:03/3:06 - 9:20.  I think that's contingent on running a 1:20 at Steelhead.

2) Steelhead - 4:09 - Run a 1:20

3) Geode - 1:58

4) Hyvee - 1:58

I'm looking forward to a pre-ride this weekend with Daniel Bretscher.  He's graciously offered to ride a couple laps with me.  It's much appreciated and should be a lot of fun.  I wonder if that could have been me 7-8 years ago if I had been a little better runner and swimmer in High School.  Probably not, I don't think I can get my engine quite that big. But it's fun dreaming a little.


Monday, June 9, 2014

2014 Kansas 70.3 Race Report - 1st Test... Major Breakthrough

Results:
4:12:39
Swim - 29:11
T1 - 1:34
Bike - 2:17:58 - 24.4mph
T2 - 1:41
Run - 1:22:15

Placing - 16th Overall, 5th Amateur, 2nd 35-39, Fastest run in Age group, 3rd Fastest Amateur Bike Split.

Let me start here.... Wow... just wow.  Not a "perfect" race, but I'm not sure I could ask for a much better performance.  Especially on the bike & run.

Race Breakdown:

Taper:
I thought I'd start here since it's an A Race.  Honestly, this was my first structured taper I've ever done.  The Last 3 weeks were a slow steady drop of weekly volume/TSS compared to my last build cycles.  The last week was just trying to target a "soft landing".  Not giving up too much fitness but making sure my legs were fresh and rested, but not flat.  The meant holding some intensity, but dropping volume drastically.   On Sat. I did nothing.  I knew I'd have some walking to do, so why bother running or cycling.  Nothing to gain there.  Better to go just a little on Friday afternoon then focus on logistics.   All week I felt really good hitting my pwoer/paces so i had a feeling I could really kill it on Sunday.

Pre-race:
I had my usual Sushi dinner the evening before.  I tried to eat early, and probably ate too much, but Meh... its' never hurt me before.  In the morning, I tired to learn form my mistakes and no eat too much in the morning.  I had a banana, a small cup of oatmeal right after waking up about 3 hours before my start.  I ate a greek yogurt in the car heading in, and form there had 2 bottles of sports drink and maybe 1/2 a bottle of water.  I was well hydrated but not full.  I probably could have had less... knowing that I'd drink some lake water at some point.

Swim:
I started off great.  my best start ever.  Clear water, on-line, near the draft if a couple guys, looking good.  That lasted for about 300y, then as usually, I started to fade a little and settled in.  I then started to pull to the left.  Maybe i need to sight a lot more.  But this repeated or the whole swim.  I ended up swimming solo and mostly inside the buoys except turns of course.  IF I had found a pack, I think I could have gone 1 minute faster.  In the end, it didn't matter... and the way the bike played out, it might have helped me to come from behind anyway.  Read more...

T1
Killed it....killed it!.   I think I had one of the fastest T1 including pros.  Wetsuit came off like butter and I had it 95% off while I was putting on my helmet and glasses.  I also run really well barefooted despite rocks surfaces.  My mount went OK.  1 foot in my right shoes, but I pushed down and released my right before I slid it in.  I need to practice this more.  Just in front of me I think was Scott Iott.  I realized then that my swim wasn't great as historically he's not a strong swimmer.  I didn't panic and stuck to my plan.  Can;t fix the swim now.

Bike:
255 Watts  NP
248 Watts AP
0.84 IF
1.03 VI
Set-up: Zipp 404 (non-FC)/808 FC, Giro Advantage 2, Conti 4000S/Sii Latex tubes.  BTA Torpedo facing rewards, Bontrager Aero bottle on seat tube, SC Draft Box with spare tube and inflator, Speed box with Gels on top tube behind stem.

I rolled up the 1st hill at a solid 320 watts.  I decided to place a limit around there.  I had to focus not to go too fast.  I was breathing hard from the swim and transition, so after cresting the first hill I relaxed, settled to down to 220-240W to recover a little and find a rhythm.

My first good decision of the day was not to touch my bottles at all for the first 15 minutes.  I needed to let my stomach settle and get any lake water through and burp out some air if any.

I finally rolled it up a bit to around 250-260 Watts.  It felt comfortable, breathing was very relaxed, I focused on a good aero position.  Hills were 280-310 depending on the grade.  I stayed above about 13mph relative air speed.  We had a slight tailwind and I was carefully threading through the earlier waves.

Iott remained about 1/4 mile up the road.  He was pushing a solid pace with the tailwind.  At about mile 12 there was a blur in all black flew past.   SOB... Adam fricking Zucco.  I thought WTH, and rolled on the power to see what it took to ride his pace.  I was afraid Iott would latch on and they'd be gone for good.  I rode 300-320 watts for about 2-3 minutes and was very slowing gaining, but realized I even if I caught them I couldn't hold that pace.  I also saw that Zucco had dropped Iott, so he was clearly on a mission.   (Zucco would end up riding the 2nd fastest split of the day ...including pros... he told me I think 305 Watts).  He was from a earlier wave, so he was not 5 minute "up the road" and basically gone unless he blew up in epic fashion on the run.

At this point I had no Idea where Scott Bowe was.  I assumed he was up the road being a fast swimmer and strong cyclist and I'd have to run him down.  Apparently I passed him somewhere on the course, late in the ride.  I have no idea when that happened.  I think it was on a hill somewhere.

Nutrition:  nutrition seemed to work well, my stomach felt fine the whole ride.  I grabbed one bottle at the 2nd aide station.  All together I had 1 bottle of my own home mix, 2/3 bottle of perform from poweder, and 3/4 bottle of perform premix.  I ate 3 powergels with caffeine. It actually added up to I think around 370 calories per hour.  More than I had planned.  But I seemed to tolerate it just fine.  though I was getting a little bloated later on the run.  So maybe that pushed it just a bit... but I also planned to eat and drink very little on the run.

Around mile 36 I caught Iott.  This was a HUGE boost as I was starting to doubt myself just a little at that point.  My legs were showing some fatigue and holding 250-260 was taking some effort.  Traffic was thinning out finally at least.  Scott probably thinks I'm a cocky ass****.  I asked if he was "scott".  He asked who I was, I answered, then asked where Zucco was and mumbled something about my swim wasn't that good.  Yes I'm a big dork and get a little mouthy when I'd excited.  But I probably need to just keep my mouth shut.  He didn't look amused on the run and was all business, that's for sure.

I held my watts and just made sure I didn't override the last set of hills including one of the largest on the course.   Honestly, with a power meter, riding hills is easy.  You just pick and gear and push the pedals to hold your numbers.  Don't over think it and ignore what everyone else is doing.

Drafting - Not an issue at all on a rolling course like this.  There were some folks riding along side another for longer than they should, but I don't think it was intentional.  I got boxed in once, but that was it.

T2:
I nailed my dismount and rolled into transition.  I overshot slightly.  And all was well, but I had some issues getting my socks on.  Then I forgot my GPS watch.  Crap...Pigman all over again.  I at least realized it sooner this time and it's a shorter transition.  Mext race I'll strap it and my visor around my race belt so I have 1 thing to grab.  Altogether I lost about 40 second.  The real surprise was Scott Bowe rolling into transition just behind me.  I think he was up the road.

Run:
A little angry now, I shot out of transition, I then stopped real quick to tighten my shoe (shouldn't have bothered), then took off again like a bat out of hell.  I ran down Scott in the 1st 1/2 mile.  Yes, this was foolish, but my legs felt great.  No cramping, breathing was relaxed, cadence was smooth and flying.  I eased back a bit before I caught him and rolled past.  I dawned on my that I might be in 2nd in the age group.  Crap!   I see my wife and daughter, a awesome boost and she says I'm in 2nd.  Now just to  hold off Iott.  At the turn around I could see Scott was maybe 2 minutes back and looked fast and strong (apparently I might look that way too).  I eased into a steady 6:00-6:10 pace that felt comfortable.  6:15 was my goal pace if I was feeling good.  6:30 was my "back-up plan".

"Racing With The Stars" - so now there's a bicycle near me with apparently the 2nd place female.   I start hearing "Go Rachel".   Holy crap, it's none other than 2nd place Kona finisher Rachel Joyce.  Just a short ways back.   Now I'm extra motivated.  The pace feels good so I roll with it.  Around mile 5 I think, I decide I don't need to be ahead of her, the lap traffic is getting a little heavier and don't want I impede her progress at all if she decides to kick it, so I ease up on a straight and let her by and settle in just behind her, but far enough I don't risk making contact.  I yelled a few words of encouragement and clapped as she turned to the finish.  Really cool.  My 10k split was right at 38:00!

From there I settle into to a comfortable 6:15-6:20.  I'm feeling the miles now, but it's not too bad.  Mile 8 rolls around and I'm feeling it now.  Time to focus and get to down to business.  It's crunch time, this is where the race really begins!  The miles seem a LOT LONGER now.  9, steady up the last hill, don;t push it.  10... 5k left, I'm hurting now and struggling to find any form.  I focus hard on my arms drive, keeping up the turnover and getting my legs up.

The battle of attrition is on... I take a split at the turnaround... 0:54... that's about 1:45 back to Iott.  He still looks strong and I'm worried he's saved a 5:50 pace a closing kick.  I'm down to 6:40-7:00 pace now, trying to make sure I don't blow up.  He could make up that time fast.  I make sure to pick it up a bit as he passes... yes it's some pathetic gamesmanship, but I need to look like I can't be caught.  I clock him again at a corner I can see.  40 seconds passes and he's still not there.  1.5 miles left, I think I'm home free but i try and summon some more speed.  The last 1/2 mile is LONG...really long.... the longest damn 1/2 mile I've ever run.  I turn to the finish and I'm pumped.  I killed it!

Summary:
I beat my goal of going under 4:15.  I rode very close to what bestbikesplit.com said I would.  I actually went slightly faster, but I need to plug in the updated wind numbers.  My training ride was NOT a fluke a week prior.  I am riding that fast.  Little aero and drag improvements pay off.  My OWS swim skills need some work.  My T2 needs work.  I'm running really, really well.  I can count on my run consistently being strong if I get my nutrition right.  I think I can go under 4:10 at Steelhead if the weather is good and I swim well.  I'll be even more fit, but less tapered.

The results, made all of my training and hard work worth while.  It showed that will consistent and intelligent training, you can go a lot faster than you ever thought you were capable.


NOTE: Yes I'm a dork, but I'm totally going to see if I can mail Rachel Joyce my Kansas Finishers cap to a PO box in Boulder and try and find a photo where both of us are in it.


Other Comments:
Talking to Adam Zucco after the race in T2, I asked if he thought a disc cover was worth it... he said yes.  OS that will be my next and possibly last investment in speed.  I also found out the he'll be doing 70.3 Worlds instead of IMWI... I suspect Iott will do the same.  Unless I'm missing someone, that leaves the 35-39 age group wide open and may place me as the favorite.  Now I really need to sort through that list and do some cross referencing after Racine in particular and see who shows up at Steelhead.

I'll post some pictures when I get them.

Wednesday, June 4, 2014

Weekly Wrap-up 06-03-14

OK, I'm really late on this one.  Time flys by.

Last "peak week" behind me.  Now time for final taper, rest, recovery and getting mentally prepared to kick some a**.  I've going with the slightly overconfident but still somewhat realistic.  Hey, why not dream big.  I'm just testing my fitness and don't have much to lose.   I'll post more on my race strategy below.

By the numbers:

Swim: 3h16m, 13,950y
Bike: 7h32m, 164mi
Run: 4h34m, 36.5mi
TSS: 1106

Overall a solid week.  A lot more quality than volume.  Legs felt pretty tired running but pretty good cycling.  Swimming got a bump as the air quality was a lot better.   Maybe too little too late, but I'll take it.   I'm still looking to supplement some swims by using an outdoor lap pool at a private residence.

Kansas 70.3!!!   Its' here.  Les than 4 days away.   Its' what I've been training towards since December.  My first "A" race.  My ultimate goal is IMWI, but this is a major stepping stone.  It's where I get a change to in a sense fire a "warning shot" and prove that I've arrived.  The 2 guys that will be my primary "known" completion at IMWI will be there.  Its my first chance to pace based on power, successfully execute (was not successful at Pigman last year...GI issues) a good nutrition plan, and see what my legs can really do on the run.  I felt like in the 1:17 open time I put down 3 weeks ago, while ideal conditions, was hillier than Kansas, and I held back quit a bit the last 10k.  I think I had another 1 minute there if I paced more evenly and really pushed it the last 5k.  I also was a little undertrained for that intensity, and I felt it in my recovery the following week.  This time I'll be a little more fit, and a LOT more rested.

Race Strategy:
Transitions:  I want to talk about these first.  I had excellent transitions at Trizou and I want to repeat that.  The difference will be remembering to grab all my "crap" in T2.  I have to put on socks, visor than grab my number belt and GPS watch.  I'll have my Garmin 500 on my bike set to autostop, but I'll have to start-up my 405 otherwise the battery won't make it.
Swim: Find some fast feet.  It will be hard to stay there with lap traffic.  But I think a 27:xx is possible if I sight well and get in the right pack.  But I'll be happy with another 28:xx swim same as Pigman.  Conditions should be good.  I feel pretty confident at this distance.  My training hasn't been great, but then I look at my Trizou swim and realize that the speed is there, but I can't practice it in my warm pool I train in.  SO I just have to roll with it.
Bike: This is a bit of a wild card.  I'm really happy with my aero and overall bike set-up.  I think a 2:18-2:19 is possible on about 255-260NP.  I need to remember to really watch my efforts the first 20 miles.  Lap traffic should be heavy.  It will thin out a bit I think after mile 40 or so, but then I'll be passing faster riders and will probably start to hit some of the "packs".  I just have to remember that I'm not going to "win" the race on the bike, but I can ruin my race.  Trust my training, stick to the power targets.   My nutrition plan is 1 bottle of my custom mix in my torpedo BTA bottle, and the same in a aero bottle on my downtube.  This will also be my "back-up bottle".  I plan to take a hand-off as soon as I empty the first bottle, but if I miss that this bottle will hold me until later in the ride.  With warm temps and humidity expected, I'll plan to drink almost 3 bottles total.  I'll also eat 2 Power Gels, one every 40 minutes or so.  That will put me right around 300-320 calories per hour.  Eat bottle is 160 calories, plus a bottle of Perform is 200 calories if I drink it all.  The temperature will determine how much I drink.
Run: Time to take care of business.  I want to throw caution to the wind and commit to a 1:21 early on so 6:10 pace, but stay over 6:00.  that's 5' slower than what I think I could run on the same course in an open 1/2.  I'ts going to hurt, really hurt after mile 6 on.

The good news is that it's a 2 loop run and the section around the campground is "out & back" so my family can see me 4 times, plus in T1, T2 and a short walk away, they can see me 2 more times on the start of the 2nd lap at near transition.  Looks like it should be well shaded for most of it and really, good crowds to give you a boost.  Lap traffic could be heavy and some aide stations might get congested and tricky to navigate at  a nearly 6:00 pace.  I remember that last 4 miles at Pigman being a matter of sort of putting my head down and just driving the pace.  I didn't even want to look at the other competitors going the opposite way.

We'll see how the race plays out.  But my current, optimistic and slightly over confident prediction is  28:00/2:18/1:22 = 4:11 (3' transitions).  That could be good enough to win the age group... or it puts me in 4th.   Hard to say.  the competition will be pretty good up front, but I don't see any super studs that can go well under 4:10 on the bib list on this course.

Honestly, one of my major goals was to just go under 4:15, and I think that' a very, very realistic goal if I execute well and don;t have any major issues.

Can't wait!