Comparing 2013 vs. 2014

So coming up on 10 days before my first race of the season, I did a comparison of my training distances (does not necessarily reflect training load) from last year to this year.  Swimming is a lot higher, cycling is more than 3x and running is also a little higher despite 3 light weeks due to injury.... and all the cycling volume.   I've also did 13 hours of strength training in Jan as well.

2013/2014

Swim: 138,000y   236,000y

Bike:   862 miles   2,777 miles

Run:    426 miles   533 miles

Since we're just into week 17 for the year, we'll divide that by 16.5 to get an average weekly volume.


Swim: 8,360y/14,300

Bike: 52mi/168mi

Run: 25.8/32.3mi

Now the real question is this... At what point do I plateau in my improvement? or at least hit a point of diminishing returns?   It's really hard to say since my goals are different in terms of my endurance required for a IM vs. a 70.3 and my goals for my pace are different.

Consider too that probably over 2000 of those cycling miles were done indoors.  I'll start to reverse that not that the days are longer and the weather is warmer in the morning.  But I suspect it will still remain at about 50%.

So thinking about Trizou.   Last year I gave up 20 seconds on the swim, probably 1.5 minutes on the bike and 1 minute on the run. (no splits for bike & run.  So here's the question... can I out swim Kevin and go just under 6?   Yes, I think so.  Can I match his bike and come even into T2?   I think that's realistic.  Can I match his run?   Probably not, but I can come within 30 seconds I think and give it everything I have to at least try and hold pace for the first 2 miles.

So here what I think I do.  1) Swim my ass off.  2) .... wait, I better keep my strategy to myself, you never know if the competition does their research.